RESEARCH FIRM IDC has projected that worldwide PC shipments will plummet by more than eight per cent during the first half of 2009.
However, sales are expected to gradually improve and even demonstrate positive growth by the fourth quarter.
"The economic crisis is tightening discretionary spending for consumers, which is bad news for the PC industry. Over the last few years, the consumer market, particularly in the case of notebooks, has been the growth engine for the overall PC business," Richard Shim, research manager for personal computing at IDC told IT Examiner. "At the same time, the commercial market has been in a slump, which is only compounding the slowdown. Vendors are retrenching and positioning themselves for growth when the turnaround comes, but the duration of slowdown and the economic crisis will ultimately determine who and how many companies will be left standing."
Shim explained that slackening demand in the consumer market had stifled the "engine of growth" for US PC shipments.
"In conjunction with an increasingly negative scenario in the commercial market, the US PC industry is seeing a substantial drop in volume. When the PC market rebounds, we expect the commercial replacements to take a larger role in the recovery," said Shim.
Loren Loverde, director of IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker, confirmed the PC market was "in for a bumpy ride."
"Nevertheless, there are a number of reasons why the PC market will not fare dramatically worse in the current environment than it did in the 2001 recession – even if the current economic environment is notably worse. Pricing will become even more aggressive, and there will be further consolidation, but the PC industry will not go the way of the financial or auto industries in this cycle," added Loverde. (Source: IT Examiner)
PC Shipments By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
(Shipments in Millions)
|
Region
|
Form Factor
|
2008
|
2009*
|
2010*
|
2011*
|
2012*
|
2013*
|
|
USA
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
34.2
|
29.0
|
26.0
|
24.5
|
23.5
|
23.0
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
34.1
|
33.3
|
35.5
|
40.5
|
44.3
|
47.6
|
|
|
Total PC
|
68.3
|
62.3
|
61.5
|
65.1
|
67.9
|
70.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
International
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
118.5
|
104.4
|
105.3
|
110.1
|
115.1
|
119.4
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
108.3
|
115.3
|
134.1
|
165.1
|
196.8
|
229.4
|
|
|
Total PC
|
226.8
|
219.7
|
239.5
|
275.2
|
311.9
|
348.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Worldwide
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
152.8
|
133.4
|
131.3
|
134.6
|
138.7
|
142.4
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
142.4
|
148.6
|
169.6
|
205.6
|
241.1
|
277.0
|
|
|
Total PC
|
295.2
|
282.0
|
300.9
|
340.3
|
379.8
|
419.4
|
* Forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, March 2009
PC Shipment Growth By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
|
Region
|
Form Factor
|
2008
|
2009*
|
2010*
|
2011*
|
2012*
|
2013*
|
|
USA
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
-7.5%
|
-15.3%
|
-10.3%
|
-5.6%
|
-4.0%
|
-2.4%
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
13.6%
|
-2.4%
|
6.6%
|
14.2%
|
9.3%
|
7.4%
|
|
|
Total PC
|
2.0%
|
-8.9%
|
-1.3%
|
5.8%
|
4.3%
|
4.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
International
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
-4.5%
|
-11.9%
|
0.9%
|
4.5%
|
4.6%
|
3.7%
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
39.0%
|
6.5%
|
16.3%
|
23.1%
|
19.2%
|
16.6%
|
|
|
Total PC
|
12.3%
|
-3.2%
|
9.0%
|
14.9%
|
13.3%
|
11.8%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Worldwide
|
Desktop PC & x86 Server
|
-5.2%
|
-12.7%
|
-1.5%
|
2.5%
|
3.0%
|
2.7%
|
|
|
Portable PC
|
31.9%
|
4.3%
|
14.2%
|
21.2%
|
17.2%
|
14.9%
|
|
|
Total PC
|
9.7%
|
-4.5%
|
6.7%
|
13.1%
|
11.6%
|
10.4%
|
|