A SENIOR ASSOCIATE at the US-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has assessed that Israel may target Iranian nuclear sites with Jericho ballistic missiles.
"We have seen how an air to ground strike mission can be difficult to implement and would involve some risks. The attrition rates of the Israeli air strike will be high, could go up to 20 to 30 per cent. For a strike mission of some 90 aircraft, the attrition could then be between 20 to 30 aircraft. A loss Israel would hardly accept in paying," wrote Abdullah Toukan in a recently published report.
"All of this can somewhat be avoided if ballistic missiles are used to carry out the mission. Israel has this capability and Iran does not have a ballistic missile defense system such as the Russian S-300PMU2 'Favorit' that was designed to intercept ballistic missiles as well as combat aircraft. It has been reported that Iran has been negotiating with Russia for the procurement of the S-300PMU2 and they might get it now that the present US administration is taking the diplomatic dialogue approach with Iran."
 According to Toukan, the most recent version of the Jericho appears to be a two-stage, solid-fuel propellant projectile capable of achieving a 900 mile (1,500 kilometers) range with a 2,200 pound payload.
"There are reports that Israel is developing a Jericho III missile, based on a booster it developed with South Africa in the 1980s. Jane's estimated that the missile has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers and a 1,000-kilogram warhead. This estimate is based largely on a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency (analysis) of the launch capability of the Shavit booster," concluded Toukan.
Indeed, in January 2008, Israel tested a dual-stage missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers reportedly capable of carrying both conventional and non-conventional warheads.
"Everybody can do the math and understand that the significance is that we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world," weapons expert Isaac Ben-Israel told Israel television Channel 2.
However, Nathan Hughes, an analyst at a Texas-based global intelligence company known as Stratfor, told The News that Israel would be "extremely hesitant" to employ the longest-range element of its nuclear triad against Iran's nuclear facilities.
"Israel would be extremely hesitant to employ the longest-range element of its nuclear triad in a strike for which it would want to retain the maximum flexibility in its retaliatory capability - and the longer-range Jerichos would be the tool of choice for holding Tehran at risk. Given that the strike could not be carried out solely with Jerichos and aircraft would be required anyway, the benefits of supplementing those airstrikes with Jerichos would be limited - especially since the effectiveness of their accuracy (though unknown) combined with the conventional warhead on potential targets is questionable," concluded Hughes.
Jeffrey White, a defence fellow at the Washington Institute who specialises in the military and security affairs of Iraq and the Levant, expressed similar sentiments.
"These are for deterrence and strategic nuclear strike. I doubt if they would be used for this kind of mission. They would not be very effective with conventional warheads," explained White.
John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org and one of the world's leading experts on defence, space and intelligence policy, concurred. 
"It would take all the missiles on hand. This is not a good option," said Pike.
As The News previously reported, the Russian media recently confirmed that Moscow had agreed to sell advanced S-300 air-defence missiles to Tehran - which could significantly complicate the execution of a potential Israeli air strike.
An Israeli official conceeded that the S-300 "would make an air attack more difficult."
"There's no doubt that the S-300s would make an air attack more difficult. But there's an answer for every counter-measure, and as far as we're concerned, the sooner the Iranians get the new system, the more time we will have to inspect the deployments and tactical doctrines. There's a learning curve," said the official.
The Russian-manufactured S-300, which is is capable of simultaneously tracking up to 100 entities, has a range of 200 kilometres and can eliminate targets at altitudes of up to 27,000 metres.
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