ON 7 MARCH 2009, Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA) operatives executed a carefully planned attack against the Massereene army base north of Belfast. Two British soldiers were killed, while four others sustained injuries.
The IRA's political wing, Sinn Fein, condemned the deadly incident and insisted that it would not derail Northern Ireland's peace process. Security officials responded to the Massereene killings by deploying elements of the British Army's Special Reconnaissance Regiment, which has reportedly participated in various special operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
 Northern Ireland comprises six counties that opted to remain a part of the United Kingdom in 1922, after the rest of Ireland chose to form a self-ruling state. A violent ethno-political battle subsequently erupted between nationalist Catholics, who demanded that Northern Ireland reunite with the Irish Republic and loyalist Protestants, who prefered to remain under the auspices of the the United Kingdom.
The war, also refered to as "The Troubles," was fought from 1968 to 1998. During those bloody years, the IRA battled pro-loyalist Ulster Volunteer Forces, Ulster Defence Association paramilitaries, the British army and the Northern Ireland police force. Although violent activity decreased significantly since a peace agreement was signed in 1998, threats and violence have risen dramatically over the past six months as the global economic recession takes its toll. The current crisis has given dissident groups such as the RIRA both an opportunity and excuse to challenge the peace process.
Reva Bhalla, director of analysis at Texas-based global intelligence company Stratfor, offered The News her analysis of recent events in Northern Ireland.
The News: The Daily Express reports that the Real IRA may maintain links with al Qaeda. How likely is such a relationship?
Bhalla: "The IRA of the 1970s utilised the same supply links for arms and drugs as al Qaeda does in present day. But there is a huge gap between the time periods when both groups operated in North Africa and Latin America, which makes it nearly impossible that al Qaeda and IRA interests overlapped in any meaningful sense. The RIRA of today does still have some rumored links into Latin America and other regions, but the two groups have very different philosophies which would make it highly unlikely they ever formed a relationship. Stratfor does not take these claims seriously. Al Qaeda and affiliated jihadists abhor the Russians and the FSB/SVR as much as they do the US. They are not going to work with their Marxist progeny. That said, there is reason to believe that al Qaeda and al Qaeda-affiliated groups took tactical lessons from IRA training manuals that have been circulating since the 1970s."
The News: Previous media reports indicate that the IRA (before decommissioning) maintained links with the PLO. Would you be able to elaborate as to why terrorist groups with such disparate goals and personalities are able to find common ground in order to share expertise?
Bhalla: "The IRA first came across the PLO in the 1970s when Irish student groups traveled to Colombia, Libya and Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley to train. The IRA and PLO had a symbolic  connection in that they both viewed themselves as victims of large, occupying powers. Ideology can matter very little in militant relationships. Take, for example, Iran - a Shiite power - and its heavy support for Hamas, a radical Sunni power. A key factor in bringing the IRA and PLO together was also their Soviet sponsor, which had a wider aim in undermining Western interests in key areas of the world. To this end, the old IRA had links to Fatah and Black September, as well as RAF, Italian Red Brigades. The IRA of today has also worked to separate itself from any group (including its own splinters) that have been involved in reported terrorism."
The News: Do you suspect that a specific country may be aiding the Real IRA, much in the same way Libya supplied the IRA with weapons years ago?
Bhalla: "Stratfor is investigating this issue. Until we have confirmation on such links, we would like to refrain from commenting on this. We do know that the IRA interacts with foreign criminals, mostly in the Balkans, where they obtain most of their guns. We believe they are mostly self-funded via bank heists, extortion and tiger kidnappings."
The News: Finally, what reason would dissident elements have for expressing dissatisfaction with the current power sharing agreement? Or is it just a simple power struggle, stripped of religious or nationalist grievances?
Bhalla: "The 'powersharing agreement' between London, Dublin and Belfast does not really share power in the eyes of the IRA and its present splinter groups but is more of a peace deal that squashes all their demands. This agreement signed in 1998 was meant to end the violence and politically helped devolve legislative power from London to Belfast with Dublin's support. However, this is not the key argument that the Irish dissidents in Northern Ireland are against. They are seeking an actual break from Crown rule. The problem is that without the Crown's influence inside of Northern Ireland, the other half of the population (the Protestants) will have a similar grievance if under Belfast's or Dublin's rule."
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